Page 25 - Demo
P. 25
GUIDELINE ON MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE RESPONSIVENESS AND RESILIENCE INTO URBAN PLANNING 19GUIDELINE ON MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE RESPONSIVENESS AND RESILIENCE INTO URBAN PLANNING 195. Guidance on identifying climate risk zones (CRZs)This Section of the Guideline provide additional guidance on identifying climate risk zones by first providing some background to where the concept emerged from and what climate risk zones are.A framework and the concepts that make up risk are then introduced, whereafter a step-by-step approach to identify climate risk zones is provided. Also see Box 8 on the planning-value of spatialised climate risk information.Identifying climate risk zones in cities is a relatively novel concept. It was first proposed in the 2019/20 Supplementary Guidance Note on Integrating Climate Response Priorities into the BEPPthat was released by National Treasury%u2019s Cities Support Porgramme. In terms of the Guidance Note (p18), the aim of identifying climate risk zones is to %u201chighlight the areas at highest risk from climate change impacts and to inform the required investment to adapt to these risks%u201d. Limited guidance was provided in how to go about identifying climate risk zones at that time. The City of Tshwane was the first city to pilot a study into the identification of climate risk zones in 2020 (City of Tshwane, 2021). Based on the experience of the Tshwane study and subsequent endeavours in other cities, and well-established concepts around risk, this Guideline provides a framework and steps for identifying climate risk zones. As more cities attempt to identify climate risk zones, the concept and methodology can be refined over time to reflect new information and insight into climate risk zone identification.The concept of Climate Risk Zones does not constitute the only example of spatialised climate risk information. For example, as part of the Climate Change Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for the City of Cape Town, vulnerable areas in the city were spatially mapped out. The assessment includes both climate change risk hotspot maps for the current (2019), midfuture (2021-2050) and far future (2070-2099) time periods, as well as the identification and prioritisation of areas in need of action in the City. The risk hotspot maps are based on the IPCC%u2019s AR4 methodology for spatialising climate risk, while the concept of CRZs, presented in this Guideline, is premised on the IPCC%u2019s AR5 methodology (see the section below on the Framework for understanding risk) (OneWorld, 2018; OneWorld, 2019). Municipalities are encouraged to explore alternative approaches and frameworks for identifying climate risks and this Guideline presents only one proposed approach.5.1.Defining a climate risk zoneRisk is defined as %u201cthe potential for adverse consequences of a climate-related hazard on lives, livelihoods, health and well-being, ecosystems and species, economic, social and cultural assets, services (including ecosystem services), and infrastructure%u201d (Chen, et al., 2021, p1-64) Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability (of the affected system), its exposure over time (to the hazard), as well as the (climate-related) hazard and the likelihood of its occurrence%u201d (IPCC, 2021).A climate risk zone indicates a geographic area with a high or very high potential for adverse consequences resulting from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and one or more climate-related hazards.