RESOURCES

USEFUL CITATIONS+

To reference the Green Book Project in general
CSIR. 2019. Green Book: Adapting South African settlements to climate change. Available at: www.greenbook.co.za

To reference the Risk Profile Tool
Le Roux, A., van Niekerk, W., Arnold, K., Pieterse, A., Ludick, C., Forsyth, G., Le Maitre, D., Lötter, D., du Plessis, P. & Mans, G. 2019. Green Book Risk Profile Tool. Pretoria: CSIR. Available at: riskprofiles.greenbook.co.za

To reference the Adaptations Actions Tool
Van Niekerk. W., Pieterse, A., Davis-Reddy, C., Le Roux, A. & Lötter, D. 2019. Green Book Adaptation Actions Tool. Pretoria: CSIR.
Available at: adaptationactions.greenbook.co.za

To reference the Story Maps:
Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries
Lötter, D., Le Roux, A. & Ludick, C. 2019. Green Book. The impact of climate change on agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Pretoria: CSIR.
Available at: https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=aecf943672c2499f9cc73454f747d33f

Climate Change
Engelbrecht, F., Le Roux, A., Arnold, K. & Malherbe, J. 2019. Green Book. Detailed projections of future climate change over South Africa. Pretoria: CSIR.
Available at:
https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=b161b2f892194ed5938374fe2192e537

Coastal Flooding
Lück-Vogel, M., Le Roux, A. & Ludick, C. 2019. Green Book. The impact of climate changes on coastal zones. Pretoria: CSIR.
Available at:
https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=0bd477eac462450c9d6e528c2d195434

Drought
Beraki, A.F., Le Roux, A. & Ludick, C. 2019. Green Book . The impact of climate change on drought. Pretoria: CSIR.
Available at:
https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=a4f13438a8c04f45a5408ef646792a8b

Economy
Ngepah, N., Djemo, C.R., Le Roux, A. & Ludick, C. 2019. Green Book. The impact of climate change on economic production and growth. Pretoria: CSIR.
Available at:
https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=d566b75b27f544839a100edb1526ce31

Flooding
Le Maitre, D., Kotzee, I., Le Roux, A. & Ludick, C. 2019. Green Book. The impact of climate change on flooding in South Africa. Pretoria: CSIR.
Available at:
https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=33d9a846cf104e1ea86ba1fa3d197cbd

Groundwater
Mvandaba, V., Mwenge Kahinda, J-M., Hobbs, P., Nzuza, P., Le Roux, A. & Arnold, K. 2019. Green Book. The impact of climate change on South Africa & future groundwater availability. Pretoria: CSIR.
Available at:
https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=73c7e05d7a1e4b0dbacc99b3709f7065

Settlement Footprints
Mans, G., Mckelly, D., Le Roux, A., Maritz, J., Komane, R. & Ludick, C. 2019. Green Book. Creation of a more defined boundary layer for settlements. Pretoria: CSIR. Available at: https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=4bc4029dbefc46329c4f594002410df6

Settlement Growth
Le Roux, A., Arnold, K., Makhanya, S. & Mans, G. 2019. Green Book. South Africa’s urban future. Growth projections for 2050. Pretoria: CSIR.
Available at:
https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=5180459a765c4e63bfb3fa527c7302b3

Settlement Vulnerability
Le Roux, A., van Huyssteen, E., Arnold, K. & Ludick, C. 2019. The vulnerabilities of South Africa's settlements. Pretoria: CSIR.
Available at:
https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=280ff54e54c145a5a765f736ac5e68f8

Surface Water
Cullis, J. & Phillips, M. 2019. Green Book. Surface Water Supply. Water supply climate risk narrative for South Africa. Pretoria: Aurecon & CSIR.
Available at: Africa. https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=74fc5a7337f34460b7a09242d0770229

Wildfires
Forsyth, G., Le Maitre, Le Roux, A. & Ludick, C. 2019. Green Book. The impact of climate change on wildfires in South Africa. Africa. Aurecon & CSIR.
Available at:
https://pta-gis-2-web1.csir.co.za/portal/apps/GBCascade/index.html?appid=a726c58f435141ba80b57fe21d3ec744


RESEARCH REPORTS +

Click on a title to view

Workstream 1: Developing a typology of climate change adaptation actions
Pieterse, A. Davis-Reddy, C. & Van Niekerk, W. 2019. Green Book - Developing a typology of climate change adaptation actions. Presentation, Pretoria: CSIR

Workstream 2: Downscaling climate change projections
Engelbrecht, F. 2019. Green Book – Detailed Projections of Future Climate Change over South Africa. Technical report, Pretoria: CSIR

Workstream 3: Settlement profiling and growth projections
Settlement growth
Le Roux, A., Makhanya, S., Arnold, K., van Tonder, L., Wools, L. & Mans, G. 2019. Green Book - Projecting the future growth of South African Settlements: Developing a concept model for town growth forecasting in South Africa. Technical report, Pretoria: CSIR

Vulnerability
Le Roux, A., van Huyssteen, E., Maditse, K., Mans, G., Ludick, C., & Arnold, K. 2019. Green Book - Profiling the vulnerability of South African settlements. Presentation, Pretoria: CSIR

Workstream 4: The impact of climate change on hazards and resources
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Lötter, D. 2019. Green Book – Climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Technical report, Pretoria: CSIR

Coastal flooding
Luck-Vogel, M. 2019. Green Book – Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment. Technical report, Pretoria: CSIR

Drought
Beraki, A. 2019. Green Book – The Impact of Climate Change on Drought. Technical report, Pretoria: CSIR

Economy
Ngepah, N & Djemo, C. R. 2019. Green Book – The economic effects of climate change on settlements. Technical report, Pretoria: CSIR

Flooding
Le Maittre, D. & Kotzee, I. 2019. Green Book – The impact of climate change on flooding. Technical report, Pretoria: CSIR

Groundwater
Mvandaba, V., Mwenge Kahinda, J., Nzuza, P & Hobbs, P. 2019. Green Book – The impact of climate change on groundwater availability. Technical report, Pretoria: CSIR

Surface water
Cullis, J. & Phillips, M. 2018. Green Book – The impact of climate change on surface water supply. Technical report, Pretoria: Aurecon & CSIR

Wildfires
Forsyth, G. & Le Maitre, D. 2018. Green Book – The impact of climate change on wildfires. Technical report, Pretoria: CSIR

CONFERENCE PAPERS & POSTERS +

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Gibberd, J. 2017. Pre-design considerations for urban climate change adaption and mitigation strategies, Smart Sustainable Cities and Transport Seminar, CSIR Knowledge Commons, Pretoria, 12-14 July 2017.

Gibberd, J. 2017. Social Resilience in Urban Areas, 11th Built Environment Conference, Durban South Africa, 6- 8th August 2017 Durban, South Africa.

Gibberd, J. 2017. Water Resilience in Urban Areas, 11th Built Environment Conference, Durban South Africa, 6-8th August 2017 Durban, South Africa.

Le Roux, A., Van Niekerk, W., Arnold, K., Pieterse, A. & Davis, C. 2018. What to adapt for? Climate change risk profiles for South African cities. A poster presentation at the IPCC Cities and the Science of Climate Change Conference, Edmonton, Canada, 5-7 Mar 2018.

Pieterse, A., van Niekerk, W. & du Toit, J. Forthcoming. Creating resilient settlements through climate change adaptation planning, Conference Proceedings: Planning Africa Conference 2018, South African Planning Institute. 15 – 17 October 2018, Cape Town

Van Niekerk, W., Duncker, L., Maditse, K.; Davis, C & Pieterse, A. Water Sensitive Urban Planning as Adaptation Strategy. Conference Proceedings: 54 th ISOCARP Congress. 1 – 5 October, Bödo, Norway

Van Wyk, L., 2017, Cultural and heritage sensitive adaptation measures and principles in climate change adaptation plans for South African metropolitan cities, Smart Sustainable Cities and Transport Seminar, CSIR Knowledge Commons, Pretoria, 12-14 July 2017.

Van Wyk, L., 2017, Key principles for adapting South African settlement patterns to climate change, Smart Sustainable Cities and Transport Seminar, CSIR Knowledge Commons, Pretoria, 12-14 July 2017.

CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS +

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Gibberd, J. 2017. The Green Book. Presentation at the Local Climate Solutions for Africa (LoCS4Africa) 2017 Water and Climate Congress, Johannesburg

Kotzee, I. & Le Maitre, D. 2018. A Practical decision support tool for improved flood management. Presentation at the Fourth Biennial Conference of the Southern Africa Society for Disaster Reduction, 17 – 19 October 2018, Umhlanga.

Le Roux, A., van Niekerk, W. Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Luck-Vogel, M. Engelbrecht, F., Ludick, C., Arnold, K. Lötter, D. & Beraki, A. 2018. Planning support tool for identifying and adapting South African settlements at risk to the impacts of climate change. Presentation at the Disaster Risk Reduction 2018 Conference, Disaster Management Institute of Southern Africa, 19 – 20 September 2018, Benoni.

Le Roux, A., van Niekerk, W. Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Lück-Vogel, M. Engelbrecht, F., Ludick, C., Arnold, K. Lötter, D. & Beraki, A. 2018. Planning support tool for identifying and adapting South African settlements at risk to the impacts of climate change. Presentation at the Fourth Biennial Conference of the Southern Africa Society for Disaster Reduction, 17 – 19 October 2018, Umhlanga.

Le Roux, A., van Niekerk, W. Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Luck-Vogel, M. Engelbrecht, F., Ludick, C., Arnold, K., Pieterse, A. Lötter, D. & Beraki, A. 2018. A likely 2015 future: Risk trajectories of South African settlements. Keynote presentation at the OUT-OF-THE-BOX Human Settlements Conference, 24 October 2018, Pretoria.

Lück-Vogel, M., Le Roux, A. Eichhoff, J., Theron, A.K. & April, J. 2018. Coastal settlements and climate change: A pragmatic approach to determining settlements at risk of coastal flooding. Presentation at the Fourth Biennial Conference of the Southern Africa Society for Disaster Reduction, 17 – 19 October 2018, Umhlanga.

Pieterse, A., & van Niekerk, W. 2018. Stakeholder engagement, collaboration and co-development in the Green Book project: Approach and lessons learnt. Panel member presentation at the Resilient Cities: The 9th Global Forum on Urban Resilience and Adaptation, 26 – 28 April 2018, Bonn, Germany

Pieterse, A., van Niekerk, W. & du Toit, J. 2018. Creating resilient settlements through climate change adaptation planning. Paper presented at the Planning Africa Conference, South African Planning Institute, 15 – 17 October 2018, Cape Town

Pieterse, A., van Niekerk, W., van Huyssteen, E. & Bruwer, A. 2018. Opportunities and challenges for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation coordination within the South African intergovernmental planning system. Presentation at the Adaptation Futures 2018: 5th International Climate Change Adaptation Conference, 18 – 21 June 2018, Cape Town

Van Huyssteen, E., Le Roux, A. Maditse, K. 2018. Creating a vulnerability framework for measuring the various dimensions and scales of vulnerability in South African settlements. Presentation at the Planning Africa Conference, South African Planning Institute, 15 – 17 October 2018, Cape Town

Van Niekerk, W., le Roux, A., Duncker, L., Pieterse, A., Davis- Reddy, C. & Maditse, K. 2018. Water sensitive urban planning as adaptation strategy. Presentation at the 54th ISOCARP Congress, 1 – 5 October 2018, Bödo, Norway

Van Niekerk, W., le Roux, A. Pieterse, A. 2018. Place-based adaptation solutions for South African settlements. Presentation at the Adaptation Futures 2018: 5th International Climate Change Adaptation Conference, 18 – 21 June 2018, Cape Town

Van Niekerk, W., le Roux, A., Pieterse, A. 2018. The Green Book: Adaptation actions for South African settlements at risk of climate change. Keynote presentation at the Green Buildings and Infrastructure Conference, as part of Sustainability Week, 7 June 2018, Pretoria

Van Niekerk, W., Pieterse, A., Le Roux, A., Arnold, K & Ludick, C. 2018. Place-based adaptation solutions for South African settlements. Presentation at the 54th ISOCARP Congress, 1 – 5 October 2018, Bödo, Norway

Van Niekerk, W. 2016. The Green Book. Presentation at the Liveable Cities Forum, 13 September 2016. Halifax, Canada

OTHER PRESENTATIONS +

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Van Niekerk, W., Le Roux, A. & Pieterse, A. 2019. An overview of the Green Book project. CSIR, Pretoria

Le Roux, A., Arnold, K., Ludick, C., Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Lück-Vogel, M., Engelbrecht, F., Lötter, D., van Niekerk, W. & Beraki, A. 2018. Risk trajectories of South African settlements: Gauteng initial findings from the Green Book. Presentation in support of Department Human Settlements’ Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Human Settlements Roadmap (STI4SHS), September 2018.

Le Roux, A., Arnold, K., Ludick, C., Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Lück-Vogel, M., Engelbrecht, F., Lötter, D., van Niekerk, W. & Beraki, A. 2018. Risk trajectories of South African settlements: Eastern Cape initial findings from the Green Book. Presentation in support of Department Human Settlements’ Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Human Settlements Roadmap (STI4SHS), September 2018.

Le Roux, A., Arnold, K., Ludick, C., Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Lück-Vogel, M., Engelbrecht, F., Lötter, D., van Niekerk, W. & Beraki, A. 2018. Risk trajectories of South African settlements: Free State initial findings from the Green Book. Presentation in support of Department Human Settlements’ Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Human Settlements Roadmap (STI4SHS), September 2018.

Le Roux, A., Arnold, K., Ludick, C., Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Lück-Vogel, M., Engelbrecht, F., Lötter, D., van Niekerk, W. & Beraki, A. 2018. Risk trajectories of South African settlements: KwaZulu Natal initial findings from the Green Book. Presentation in support of Department Human Settlements’ Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Human Settlements Roadmap (STI4SHS), September 2018.

Le Roux, A., Arnold, K., Ludick, C., Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Lück-Vogel, M., Engelbrecht, F., Lötter, D., van Niekerk, W. & Beraki, A. 2018. Risk trajectories of South African settlements: Limpopo initial findings from the Green Book. Presentation in support of Department Human Settlements’ Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Human Settlements Roadmap (STI4SHS), September 2018.

Le Roux, A., Arnold, K., Ludick, C., Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Lück-Vogel, M., Engelbrecht, F., Lötter, D., van Niekerk, W. & Beraki, A. 2018. Risk trajectories of South African settlements: Mpumalanga initial findings from the Green Book. Presentation in support of Department Human Settlements’ Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Human Settlements Roadmap (STI4SHS), September 2018.

Le Roux, A., Arnold, K., Ludick, C., Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Lück-Vogel, M., Engelbrecht, F., Lötter, D., van Niekerk, W. & Beraki, A. 2018. Risk trajectories of South African settlements: Northern Cape initial findings from the Green Book. Presentation in support of Department Human Settlements’ Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Human Settlements Roadmap (STI4SHS), September 2018.

Le Roux, A., Arnold, K., Ludick, C., Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Lück-Vogel, M., Engelbrecht, F., Lötter, D., van Niekerk, W. & Beraki, A. 2018. Risk trajectories of South African settlements: North West initial findings from the Green Book. Presentation in support of Department Human Settlements’ Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Human Settlements Roadmap (STI4SHS), September 2018.

Le Roux, A., Arnold, K., Ludick, C., Le Maittre, D., Forsyth, G., Lück-Vogel, M., Engelbrecht, F., Lötter, D., van Niekerk, W. & Beraki, A. 2018. Risk trajectories of South African settlements: Western Cape initial findings from the Green Book. Presentation in support of Department Human Settlements’ Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Human Settlements Roadmap (STI4SHS), September 2018.

Van Niekerk, W., Le Roux, A., & Pieterse, A.  2019. Green Book. Presented at the Green Book Launch on 8 March 2019, Knowledge Commons, Pretoria CSIR Campus.

LOW REGRET ACTIONS

1

Low regret, no regret, and win-win adaptation actions provide benefit economic, social or environmental no matter the level of climate change.

Adaptive measures for which the associated costs are relatively low and for which the benefits, although primarily realised under projected future climate change, may be
relatively large. These measures require an initial investment.

LOW REGRET ACTIONS

Adaptive measures for which the associated costs are relatively low and for which the benefits, although primarily realised under projected future climate change, may be
relatively large. These measures require an initial investment.

Examples include those actions focused on hard engineering approaches, including building design and those limiting development in high-risk areas.

NO REGRET ACTIONS

Adaptive measures that are worthwhile and deliver net benefits whatever the extent of future climate change. These options are cost-effective and further justified by the high risk of future climate impacts.
No-regret actions are often appropriate in the near-term.

Examples include those actions aimed at protecting open spaces and the natural environment.

WIN-WIN ACTIONS

Adaptive measures that contribute to adaptation whilst also having other social, economic and environmental benefits including mitigation.

Examples include those actions relating to maintenance of
infrastructure.

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2

Key aspects adaptation actions should support or contribute to

Spatial justice

Ensures people have access to social and economic services, opportunities and choices.

Sustainable
settlement patterns

Growth and development within fiscal, institutional and administrative means of the authority. Careful consideration should be taken of special agricultural land and environmental protection in the development of land.

Efficiency

Fit into existing structures/ processes/ instruments by optimising the use of existing resources and infrastructure, and not be additional burdens.

Resilience

Modify the urban form to reduce risk and vulnerability and increase the ability to recover from shocks.

Good administration

Integrated approach and intergovernmental alignment, such as theenforcement of by-laws.

Spatial transformation

Redress of past spatial inequalities.

Anticipatory planning

Planning that considers the future and is anticipatory rather than reactive and takes into consideration long-term planning.

Flexibility

The ability to change and evolve to changing conditions and allow for multiple uses or functions (e.g. multi-function infrastructure such as retention ponds/parks).