Page 30 - Demo

24 GUIDELINE ON MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE RESPONSIVENESS AND RESILIENCE INTO URBAN PLANNINGGUIDELINE ON MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE RESPONSIVENESS AND RESILIENCE INTO URBAN PLANNING 24Step 4: Overlay hazards, exposure, and vulnerability to identify climate risk zonesWhen the spatial extent of a hazard is overlayed with the elements that are exposed, and their relative vulnerability %u2013 a climate risk zone is identified for a specific hazard. A climate risk zone per hazard can be developed and can be overlaid to indicate a multi-climate risk zone map. A risk matrix can be applied to determine where the risk is very high, high, low, and very low.Identifying future climate risk zonesWhere possible, the effect of climate change on the future extent and location of current climate risk zones, should be explored. Future risk scenarios can be used based on socio-economic trajectories, and possible climate futures. The likelihood of certain hazards to occur into the future can be modelled using climate change projections as input. Downscaled climate models, as opposed to outputs from global climate models, should be used as input into risk assessments to ensure contextual relevance. Consideration should also be given to the emission scenarios for which climate change is projected. Future exposure is driven by population growth, and urban expansion which can be modelled, while vulnerability is driven by socio-economic change and policy dynamics which are more difficult to account for. However, to be able to understand future risk and to assemble an evidence-base that could support planning and decision-making, some, or all the elements of climate risk zones for the future could be unpacked. Potential future hazards, exposure and vulnerability can be quantified and modelled where the data is available but should be supported with narratives and local knowledge. There are inherent uncertainties in modelling future risk, and these should be acknowledged and accounted for during each step of the process.